We will include the impact of these as more information on the relevant projects and financing becomes available. Sharp contraction in services receipts related to tourism drove a substantial widening in the current account deficit in to 6. We expect only a moderate narrowing in the current account deficit over the next three years, to 5. Net external indebtedness rose sharply in , to Risks stemming from Greece's high external indebtedness are mitigated by a large share of euro-denominated liabilities owed to official creditors and a fairly low level of vulnerability to external market sentiment.
The banking sector remains a weakness for the sovereign's credit profile, but has seen improvements in asset-quality metrics. The non-performing loan NPL ratio declined to Progress on de-risking plans by systemically important Greek banks brought about positive rating actions resulting in an improvement in Fitch's Banking System Indicator to 'b' from 'ccc'.
While we expect an inflow of new impaired loans, mainly from exposures that have until now benefited from moratoria, we still anticipate a substantial decline in the NPL ratio this year. Greece has a medium WBGI ranking at Financing flexibility is enhanced by ECB monetary policy and has improved following the inclusion of Greek government bonds in the PEPP, resulting also in historically low market interest rates.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LTFC IDR.
International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction of three notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. The global economy performs in line with Fitch's latest Global Economic Outlook published on 15 June GDP growth is then expected to be 4.
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. Enabling a strong recovery from the pandemic and therefore high growth potential is the key challenge for the Greek government.
Although Greece improved its growth potential thanks to the reforms during and following the previous crisis, the pandemic may leave scars.
The Greek economy is dependent on tourism — one of the sectors hit hardest by the crisis — and other service sectors that require a high a level of physical proximity. These sectors might not fully return to their pre-pandemic levels in the near future. While Greece will channel the EU funds into its economy, structural reforms under the National Growth Strategy will boost investment and growth by:. Greece will also need to improve its absorptive capacity to make good use of EU funds and invest them in the most productive areas.
This requires longer-term commitments by the Greek government beyond the current National Growth Strategy. Climate change poses other future risks. The needs and challenges Greece and other EU countries face in the coming years will be supported by common initiatives beyond the Next Generation EU package.
They will allow the financial sector to finance the recovery, which will alleviate budgetary pressures and thereby contribute to debt sustainability. The Commission is also set to review the fiscal framework to make it more effective and better suited to the current fiscal challenges. Springer Nature. According to the Greece 2. The views expressed are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent the views of the ESM and its Board of Governors, Board of Directors or the Management Board.
Lending Toolkit. The context A temporary backstop The programmes The results. Timeline Overview Explainer. Euronomics: A fresh look at Greek debt sustainability. Rolf Strauch. A new debt sustainability environment The structure of Greek debt has much improved. Greece 10Y. Greece 1M. Greece 20Y. Greece 3M. Greece 6M. JPMorgan Chase.
Exxon Mobil. Goldman Sachs. Crude Oil. Natural gas. Heating Oil. Iron Ore. United States. United Kingdom. South Africa.
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